Lebanon's basketball talisman Wael Arakji faces a race against time to recover from a right shoulder injury sustained during the Asian Champions League quarterfinals. The Al Riyadi guard - who tormented opponents with 26ppg during Lebanon's 2022 Asia Cup silver medal campaign - may miss August's continental showdown. As a data-driven analyst, I'll break down why his potential absence could reshuffle tournament odds using cold hard xG-style metrics for hoops. Think of it as James Harden's step-back three meets Moneyball.