Why Messi’s High Rating Makes Perfect Sense (Even If You Hate It)

The Rating Paradox

I’ve spent years decoding football with data—not emotion. My coffee is always cold by halftime, my tablet glowing with heatmaps from 100+ matches. So when someone says ‘Messi gets high ratings because he has the ball all the time,’ I don’t roll my eyes—I pull up the numbers.

Because here’s the truth: rating systems like those used by Opta or SofaScore aren’t broken. They’re designed to catch what eyes miss—impact beyond possession.

The Di María Incident: A Case Study in Misunderstanding

Take that viral video where Di María destroyed Kessié in a 3-0 demolition. The commentary screamed: “Why isn’t he in the national team?” But then came the critique: “Messi gets inflated scores because he loses possession but still gets points for risky passes.”

Let me stop you right there.

No one is punishing Messi for losing balls—unless they’re ignoring Expected Threat (xT) models. That’s where it gets interesting.

Not Just About Touches—It’s About Danger

In football analytics, we measure threat. How dangerous was that pass? Did it open space? Did it force a reaction from defenders? Those are scored—not just successful ones.

So yes, Messi might have 5 ineffective dribbles per game. But if one of them forces a defender to overcommit and creates a 2v1 on the edge of box? That’s +0.8 xT value.

And that single moment might be worth more than ten tidy short passes.

The Real Problem Isn’t Messi—it’s Perception

People want to see clean stats: goals, assists, touches made cleanly under pressure. But real-world football isn’t a spreadsheet—it’s chaos with patterns.

When Di María dropped deep to receive against Kessié and turned him inside out? That wasn’t just skill—it was tactical genius on display—but only visible after replay analysis.

That’s what rating systems try to capture: not perfection—but influence.

Why This Matters for Fans—and Analysts Like Me

I’m not defending Messi from critics—I’m defending the system. Because if your metric doesn’t reward creativity under pressure… then you’re rewarding caution over courage.

eSports players know this instinctively when they play FIFA: passing through three defenders earns more points than keeping it safe in midfield. Football scoring should reflect that same logic—because we’re analyzing human performance under stress, not robot efficiency.

click on this article if you want to see how expected threat, possession value, and ball progression explain why some players get high marks even when their accuracy looks poor—as long as they shift momentum.