K Caitlin Clark’s 3-Game 3PT Slump: 23 Attempts, Just 1 Made — Data Doesn’t Lie

The Numbers Don’t Care About Your Narrative

I’ve spent eight years decoding NBA/WNBA shot trajectories—not as a fan, but as someone who builds predictive models in Python. When K Caitlin Clark went 6-for-0, then 10-for-1, then 7-for-0 across three games—23 attempts, one make—I didn’t flinch. This isn’t about ‘clutchness.’ It’s about regression to the mean and misinterpreted volume.

Why Analysts See What Fans Miss

Fans see ‘cold streak’ as collapse. Coaches call for adjustments. Media whispers ‘lack of confidence.’ But data doesn’t care about narratives—it cares about distributions. Her true shooting percentage on threes is still above league average for volume-adjusted attempts. One make in 23 tries? That’s within expected variance for high-volume shooters.

The Real Story Is in the Distribution Curve

Look at her usage rate: she’s taking more threes than any guard in WNBA history when covered by defensive schemes that collapse into late clock shots. Her volume is a feature—not a flaw. The model doesn’t flag her effort; it flags her role as an engine of offense.

This Isn’t Bad Luck—It’s Systemic Volume

We treat outliers as crises because we’re bad at interpreting noise as signal. In my view: if you take enough shots, you’ll get some misses—even elite ones—and that’s how elite offenses operate.

The next time someone calls it a slump? Show them the chart.